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Next Election: No Sure Bets
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11134 |
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Section : |
CURRENT ISSUES
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| Issue
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3 / 1986 |
2,723 Words |
| Author
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Claudio Campuzano
Claudio Campuzano is a nationally published writer of news
analysis and commentary in both English and Spanish language
publications. He lives and works in New York City. |
The sign hanging on the wall of the pediatrician's waiting room read: "Which way did they go? How many of them were there? How fast were they going? I must find them. I am their leader."
Intent on learning if my son's checkup had turned out okay, I forgot to find out why the sign was there, but I couldn't help fancying my own answer: the good doctor must have entertained the idea of running for Congress this year.
And, if the sign hanging from his wall was an indication of the way he looked at it, he is a wise man. Because, as we will see, this looks like the year where all bets based on conventional wisdom are off.
Formula 1
To get out of the way first, the bottom line of this wisdom is that the party that controls the White House loses heavily in the election that takes place in its sixth year in power. Both in the distant past and recently the cold numbers are there to support this wisdom.
Politics, however, is not cold numbers. Under Dwight Eisenhower in 1958 and Gerald Ford in 1974 Republicans suffered severe losses in Congress. But the country was undergoing a recession under Eisenhower and his prestige was tarnished by improprieties committed by his chief assistant Sherman Adams, while Ford presided over elections that took place shortly after the Watergate incident had caused Richard Nixon's resignation. The Democratic losses in 1966 under Lyndon Johnson had much to do with the decline in his popularity as a result of the Vietnam
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