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China's Juggling Act and the Balance of Power in Asia


Article # : 11269 

Section : CURRENT ISSUES
Issue Date : 5 / 1986  5,682 Words
Author : Thomas W. Robinson
Thomas W. Robinson teaches Asian, Soviet, and national security studies at Georgetown University and is professor of Asian studies at the Foreign Service Institute, Department of State.

       Lately there has been a lot of loose talk about China. In contrast with the past, this recent speculation is based not so much on a lack of data as on its surfeit, not on uncertainties concerning China's policies, leadership, and future, but on a solid basis in fact and on clear extrapolation from present trends that appear to be well established.
       
        The evidence, it is said, seems decisively to point to a China finally and firmly embarked on the road to full modernization in most every area and to a foreign policy of peace, participation, and interdependence, within Asia and in the overall international system. The reemergence of the Central Kingdom as the premier Asian nation is viewed in most circles with hope, anticipation, and support, and most calculations run that it is better to join the race to become a true "friend of China" rather than be left behind and risk being left out, particular as concerns the riches that presumably will flow from that enormous market. If China is on its way to becoming a superpower--Beijing's protestations to the contrary--that is apparently all right with most Asians and most of those residents on the eastern coast of the Pacific Ocean.
       
        Modernization is assumed to carry with it the means to convert that country into a variant (perhaps still socialist, if hardly communist, once the process has been completed) of that relatively open, mostly foreign trade-oriented, inclining toward democracy, middle class dominated society that is becoming the pattern in many parts of Asia and has been firmly established in North America.
       
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