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Origins of the Debt Crisis
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# : |
10856 |
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Section : |
CURRENT ISSUES
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| Issue
Date : |
7 / 1986 |
4,145 Words |
| Author
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Penelope Hartland-Thunberg
Penelope Hartland-Thunberg is the William M. Scholl Fellow in
International Business at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies, Georgetown University. |
The overhang of debt that threatens to suffocate much of the developing world is traceable to the two oil shocks that jolted the world economy in the 1970s. The repercussions of the rise and decline in the international price of oil after 1973 will be long in dissipating, especially in the oil-importing and oil-exporting developing countries. The last chapter has by no means been written on that disruptive episode of world economic history.
A decade after the first price shock, in 1983, a barrel of oil bought about five times more goods and services than it had 10 years before. As a consequence, producers and sellers of oil were much better off, and consumers and buyers of oil much worse off.
The increase in the real price of oil came in two giant steps, each of which was followed by a wave of worldwide inflation and by a recession in the oil-importing world. The speed and smoothness of the world's adjustment to the first shock surprised nearly everyone. In contrast, financial turmoil and economic anguish followed the second shock. The explanation for the difference between the two cases of world adjustment is to be found primarily in the economic policies of the United States.
Shock adjustment
Within 12 months of the first price shock of 1973-1974, the profit from exports of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was multiplied sevenfold. Unspent petrodollars were placed on deposit in the large international banks in Europe and the United
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