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Raising the Stakes
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12211 |
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Section : |
CURRENT ISSUES
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| Issue
Date : |
2 / 1987 |
2,542 Words |
| Author
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Avigdor Haselkorn
Avigdor Haselkorn is a senior analyst for Analytical
Assessments Corporation. |
The Syrian military buildup is worrisome, not because it unequivocally indicates a Syrian intention to go to war, but because it provides Damascus with the option to resort to conflict at some propitious moment in the future.
Concentrating on the absence of Syrian motivations to launch large-scale hostilities fails to appreciate other politico/strategic consequences of Syria's attainment of nominal "strategic parity" with Israel. Even if it did not alter Damascus' inclination to go to war, the Syrian military buildup has influenced President Hafez Assad's conduct both regionally and toward Israel. For example, many observers have commented on the new "recklessness and boldness" of the Syrian leadership exemplified by the substantial evidence linking Syria directly to the plot to bomb an El Al plane last April 17. What a contrast to the standard diplomacy of terror, which demands secrecy and that the recipient of deadly messages suspect - but never be able to prove - who sent them. Israeli observers have begun to speak of a systematic Syrian campaign to "nibble" at the Israeli Defense Force's strategic advantage. These activities, however, cannot be viewed as unrelated to the probability of another Syrian-Israeli war. Nor can it be assumed that Assad is unaware of this link.
Given the prevailing assumptions about each other's basic motives, there seems to be no point where equilibrium can be reached: the more Assad is determined to achieve a "strategic balance" with Israel, ostensibly to deter the latter from taking advantage of the favorable geopolitical conditions produced by the Camp David "conspiracy," the more the Israelis are convinced of his warlike intentions. As former chief of IDF intelligence Maj. Gen. Ehud Barak
... (1996 of 15774 Characters)
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