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How Qaddafi's Indirect Strategy Is Working
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12503 |
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Section : |
CURRENT ISSUES
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Date : |
7 / 1987 |
3,741 Words |
| Author
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Avigdor Haselkorn
Avigdor Haselkorn is a senior analyst for Analytical
Assessments Corporation. |
In the wake of recent defeats suffered by Libyan forces in Chad, speculation has mounted over the likely impact on Muammar Qaddafi's continued hold on power. For example, analysts have pointed out that the Libyan leader has recently reshuffled his "cabinet" and even publicly executed nine persons, including a corporal and two privates, on charges of plotting to kill Soviet personnel. Intelligence sources were quoted as saying desertions from the Libyan armed forces in Chad were increasing at an "alarming rate." A Libyan military unit was said to have refused to deploy in Chad.
The debacle will likely produce strong reaction among the Libyan military. Moreover, it is indicative of the sort of problem Chad has created for Qaddafi that his military commanders were reported to restrict contacts between soldiers and their families in a bid to keep Libyan casualties secret.
The ill-fated invasion of Chad has also tarnished Qaddafi's revolutionary image. The Libyans were defeated by a local army that was vastly outnumbered and outgunned. The Libyan "tactical withdrawal" had the earmarks of another Arab army fleeing for its life in the Middle East, abandoning in the process large quantities of advanced weaponry (apparently including a Soviet-supplied SA-10 battery) intact and ready for use. Without question, Qaddafi's credibility in the Third World has been dealt a severe blow.
Should Qaddafi survive this crisis, what possible adverse consequences might he face? In Qaddafi's mind Chad was only the latest in a string of "imperialist plots" to demolish this revolution and its message, and to eliminate him personally. As he said to the
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