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Glasnost: Real Change or Fraud?
| Article
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12638 |
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Section : |
EDITORIAL
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| Issue
Date : |
6 / 1987 |
1,679 Words |
| Author
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Morton A. Kaplan
Editor and Publisher |
Our special report in Current Issues this month is on the subject of glasnost. There are two errors to be avoided in the interpretation of glasnost. One is to assume that the Soviet Union is moving toward Western-style democracy, and the other is to believe that glasnost is merely a propaganda exercise. Developments in the Soviet Union are not so simple. It would be a Marxist mistake to think that we are witnessing an inevitable development, whether the growth of democracy or the repackaging of dictatorship.
First, we must recognize that the Soviet Union is experiencing a crisis in which its economy has failed. Although the CIA estimates current growth at 4 percent as contrasted with an earlier rate of 2 percent, its record on estimates is not good. The earlier rate was likely under 1 percent - or even negative if inflation is taken into account - and the CIA does not believe a 4 percent rate can be sustained. Many relevant statistics are not published because they are unfavorable. For instance, the Soviet Union has not published infant mortality figures since the early 1970s. Even its own internal statistics are inaccurate for obvious bureaucratic reasons, while some of what is included in production is of no use to anyone.
Only the severity of the crisis, which began to threaten the superpower status of the Soviet Union and which made an accelerated SDI threatening, was sufficient to permit the reforming regimes of Andropov and Gorbachev to come into office. Although Gorbachev has no more intention of undermining the leading role of the Communist Party than does Deng Xaioping - and would be brought down if he did - he is a real reformer, although a less radical one than Deng. Remember that it was Deng who brought about the
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