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What Lies Ahead?
| Article
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13132 |
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Section : |
CURRENT ISSUES
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| Issue
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11 / 1987 |
2,564 Words |
| Author
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Edward N. Brandt, Jr.
Edward N. Brandt, Jr., M.D., is chancellor of the University
of Maryland at Baltimore. |
The first cases of an illness later named Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) were detected in early 1981, and the first description, based on five cases, was reported in the June 6, 1981 issue of Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), a publication of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC). The original cases were in homosexual men, but in 1982, cases also appeared in people with hemophilia and in others receiving transfusions of blood and blood products. Cases also began to be reported in intravenous (IV) drug abusers who shared needles. Hence, by 1983, the possible causes had been narrowed to an infectious agent that could be transmitted by sexual intercourse (anal or vaginal) and by infected blood and blood products.
As of August 31, 1987, 40,795 cases in adults and 571 in children had been reported to CDC. In adults, 26,968 cases or 66 percent were in homosexual or bisexual men, and 9,786 or 24 percent in IV drug abusers. All other categories - transfusions, heterosexual transmission, and undetermined - accounted for 5 percent or less each. In children, 78 percent of cases involve an infected mother, since AIDS is transmitted by the mother's blood before or during birth, with an additional 17 percent due to transfusions of blood or blood products. The reported cases by year demonstrate the growth of this epidemic.
From these data, it is clear that the number of cases were at least doubling each year until 1984, but since then, the rate of increase has decreased to about 50 percent per year. The exact meaning of this is not clear.
In discussing this epidemic, it is essential to remember that AIDS is only
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