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Is Time-Out Over for the Philippines?
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13247 |
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Section : |
CURRENT ISSUES
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Date : |
10 / 1987 |
3,180 Words |
| Author
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Roger Fontaine
Roger Fontaine is Washington correspondent for Tiempos del
Mundo, a Buenos Aires-based newspaper. He was a member of the
National Security Council, responsible for Latin America, from
1981 to 1983. |
Until Ferdinand Marcos left the Philippines last year for a prolonged Hawaiian vacation, most American officials though his campaign against the communist New People's Army (NPA) was a sputtering failure. Marcos' replacement, Corazon Aquino, they thought, would change all that.
The communists would soon be on the defensive, they reasoned, because many rebels would lose heart once a popular and reform-minded government was in place. And for those who stubbornly fought on, a revitalized Filipino army would take care of them.
Now, these officials are not so sure.
Eighteen months after the transition from Marcos to Aquino, that expectation seems naïve. In fact, the NPA insurgents are stronger than ever, and the end of the 18-year-old communist war is nowhere in sight.
Little-known a few years ago, the New People's Army of the Philippines believes it can achieve "strategic stalemate" in 1992. Strategic stalemate means the NPA can no longer be defeated militarily. That leaves Manila a Hobson's choice of accepting the communists as a permanent part of the political system or, worse, facing eventual defeat. According to NPA strategy, this will be followed by a strategic offensive.
Is it an idle threat? Those who know the NPA best believe its leaders are serious, and with good reason.
Today the NPA operates in perhaps 70 of the country's 74 provinces. That's 10
... (1997 of 19191 Characters)
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