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Indonesia: After Suharto, What?
| Article
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13701 |
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Section : |
CURRENT ISSUES
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Date : |
8 / 1988 |
3,446 Words |
| Author
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Margaret Sullivan
Margaret Sullivan, currently a Washington-based writer, has
spent nearly 30 years living in and writing about Southeast
Asia, specializing in the Malay world that includes Indonesia. |
After Suharto, who? This seems the logical question. In March, Suharto--to no one's surprise--was reelected, unopposed, to an unprecedented fifth five-year term as president of Indonesia. In 1993, when that term ends, he will be 72 and will have been in power for 27 years. Inevitably, then, succession questions arise.
Beyond who, however, the more central question is what? And then how and when? Upon more thoughtful consideration one would ask to what degree is personality involved? And to what extent has institutionalization of the new order (as the regime calls itself) taken place? All these questions subsume Suharto's basic dilemma: how to preserve the New Order's remarkable stability while acknowledging the need for change.
Readily visible strains on the system come from many directions. Oil and gas are Indonesia's main exports. But the OPEC-driven joyride has ended, forcing the government to cut domestic spending, devalue the rupiah, and increase foreign debt. The demographics are formidable: With a population of more than 176 million, Indonesia is the world's fifth most populous country. Indonesians live on a string of islands that, if superimposed on the United States, would extend from the Pacific Ocean west of Oregon to some 200 miles east of Savannah, Georgia, but that have a combined land area slightly smaller than that of Alaska plus California.
Despite Suharto's active support for family planning, by the early 21st century Indonesia's population will be the fourth largest in the world. Currently, more than 40 percent of Indonesians are younger than
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