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The Future of Southern Africa
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15418 |
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Section : |
CURRENT ISSUES
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12 / 1989 |
2,795 Words |
| Author
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Peter Duignan
Peter Duignan is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. |
If South African President Frederik de Klerk keeps his promise to step up reforms and share power with blacks, the United States should, in turn, phase out its policy of sanctions and disinvestments. This would restore international confidence in South Africa and allow the economy to return to its presanctions high growth rate of 4 or 5 percent a year. If apartheid is ended, investors return, and the South African government reduces its level of intervention, the economic future of South Africa and southern Africa would be bright.
The injustices and inequalities to be found in South Africa are apparent to all. Nevertheless, black South Africans have derived very real benefits from the progressive nature of the country's economic system. Wages of blacks have gone up steadily, with their rate of increase exceeding that of white wages during the past five years by 49 percent. Social services (health care, education, and the like) still leave much to be desired, but they have expanded impressively. High school enrollment has increased sixfold since 1977. Twice as many blacks as whites entered universities in 1989; as a result, blacks will soon dominate all parts of the economy, higher education, and the professions. Economic development and diversification have helped erode apartheid in South Africa in the past; they should continue to do so in the future.
In economic terms, at any rate, the development of South Africa has been an extraordinary success story. Sixty years ago, South Africa was a poverty-stricken land that was dependent--like many Third World countries today--on the export of raw materials. Today it is the economic giant of the continent. Its GNP is more than 10 times that of Kenya and more than 25 times that of
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