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China's Uncertain Future
| Article
# : |
17690 |
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Section : |
CURRENT ISSUES
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| Issue
Date : |
6 / 1990 |
2,868 Words |
| Author
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David Zweig
David Zweig teaches Chinese politics and international
relations at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts
University. He is working on a book about the internal impact
of China's opening to outside world and recently returned from
his first visit since the June 1989 crackdown. |
China's current instability makes it fashionable for analysts to devise short and long-tern scenarios of China's future. But meaningful prognostication must reflect the social and political cleavages that halted the reforms in fall 1988, when the pendulum of power swung to the conservatives, and the historical trends that framed the tragedy of June 4, 1989. No doubt, June 4 created new fissures, placing a blood debt on the heads of those who advocated a violent crackdown. But the Old Guard who wield power, the second tier of leaders who implement the conservative line, and any future leaders must all deal with China's economic, social, and political problems. These problems, as well as the current power structure within China, will determine the makeup of any new ruling group.
These issues include the following:
· the task of maintaining national unity in the face of regional variations;
· conflicts among the public, private, and rural collective sectors;
· the degree of marketization of economy, price reform, and the corruption inherent in a "dual economy";
· demands for a civil society that, in the absence of new political institutions, generate a" participation crisis";
· the need for a value system to fill the moral vacuum;
· an appropriate role for the
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